By one of the most widely used measures of supply scarcity — the stock-to-flow ratio (S2F) — Bitcoin today scores roughly twice as high as gold. This does not mean Bitcoin is twice as valuable, twice as safe, or destined to rise in price. It simply describes how slowly new supply is added relative to the amount that already exists.

The key question is therefore not which asset is “better”, but how their supply structures differ.

What stock-to-flow measures

Stock-to-flow compares the existing supply of an asset — the stock — with the amount of new supply produced each year — the flow.

A higher S2F means that annual new production represents only a small fraction of the existing supply. In this sense, the asset is harder to inflate through additional production.

Using 2025 data from the World Gold Council and the U.S. Geological Survey, approximately 216,265 tonnes of gold exist above ground, while annual mine production is around 3,672 tonnes. This gives gold an S2F of roughly 59 years.

Following the April 2024 halving, the Bitcoin block reward fell from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. At the current issuance rate, approximately 164,250 new BTC are created per year against a circulating supply of around 19.8 million BTC. That gives Bitcoin an S2F of approximately 120 years — slightly more than twice that of gold.

By this specific measure, Bitcoin is currently harder to inflate than gold.

The 2024 crossover

Before the 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s S2F was approximately 60, putting it roughly in line with gold. The halving reduced Bitcoin’s new issuance by half, pushing its S2F to around 120.

Bitcoin’s issuance follows a predetermined schedule and is reduced approximately every four years.

*Projected, assuming Bitcoin’s issuance schedule continues and gold production remains near current levels.

If these conditions hold, the next halving could push Bitcoin’s S2F to approximately four times that of gold.

The important distinction is that gold production can respond to economic incentives. Higher prices can encourage investment in exploration, mining technology and new production capacity.

Bitcoin’s issuance cannot react in the same way. If Bitcoin’s price rises and more miners join the network, competition and mining difficulty increase, but the predetermined number of new coins remains essentially unchanged. Additional mining investment therefore contributes primarily to network security rather than increasing Bitcoin supply.

What S2F does not tell us

Stock-to-flow is useful for describing supply, but it has significant limitations. Most importantly, S2F does not predict price. Price depends on many other factors, including demand, liquidity, investor sentiment and broader market conditions.

S2F is also a snapshot rather than a permanent characteristic, and it says nothing about volatility. An asset can be difficult to inflate while still experiencing substantial price movements.

There is also an important difference in the source of scarcity. Gold’s scarcity is based on geology, extraction costs and thousands of years of accumulated supply. Bitcoin’s scarcity is based on its protocol, algorithmic issuance schedule and the continued consensus around its maximum supply of 21 million coins.

Scarcity does not remove risk

A high stock-to-flow ratio should not be confused with low investment risk. Bitcoin carries significant risks, including high price volatility, the energy intensity of mining, the possibility of losing access to private keys and regulatory uncertainty. Gold and other physical commodities have their own disadvantages, including storage and insurance costs, transportation risks and, particularly for industrial metals, the possibility that technological changes reduce future demand. Scarcity is therefore only one factor when evaluating an asset.

The takeaway

So, is Bitcoin twice as scarce as gold? By stock-to-flow, approximately yes.

Following the 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s S2F increased to around 120, compared with approximately 59 for gold.

But the conclusion should remain narrow. A higher S2F does not mean Bitcoin is twice as valuable or twice as safe. It means that, under current conditions, new Bitcoin supply is being added more slowly relative to its existing supply than new gold is being added relative to the world’s existing stock of gold.

The broader distinction is more significant: while the scarcity of physical commodities is ultimately determined by geology, economics and production capacity, Bitcoin introduces a monetary asset whose issuance schedule is defined in advance by mathematics.

Data sources: World Gold Council (WGC) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), 2025 data. Stock-to-flow figures are approximate and change at each Bitcoin halving.

This material is for analytical and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are volatile and you may lose your entire investment.

* This article is a shortened version of the study. The full analysis and further details on this topic are available in the extended version of the article.