Le bitcoin s'apprête à enregistrer une rare série de hausses sur trois mois. Pourquoi le scénario de 2012 pourrait-il ne pas se reproduire ?

Bitcoin is on track to close July, August and September in positive territory, something that has happened only once before in its history. While 14 years ago this period was followed by a brief decline and then a substantial rally, today’s market operates under completely different conditions. The next direction will be determined primarily by demand from large investment funds and the policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

A Rare Streak of Green Months and a Look Back at the Past

Current price developments show that after gaining 4.8% in July and jumping 25.2% in August, Bitcoin is adding another approximately 10.9% in September, with its price trading around USD 86,140. If this month also ends in positive territory, it will mark the first such successful three-month streak since 2012. At that time, Bitcoin rose by 41% in July, 6.4% in August and 24.4% in September.

Historical data show that in October 2012, Bitcoin’s price declined by 9.7% to a local low of USD 10.17, from where it subsequently began a long-term rise toward USD 230. Analysts, however, caution that a single historical example cannot be regarded as a reliable guide for current investment decisions. A small data sample does not provide a sufficient basis for predicting whether October 2026 will bring a decline or further appreciation.

From a USD 10 Asset to a Billion-Dollar Market

The fundamental difference between 2012 and 2026 lies in the structure of the market itself. In 2012, Bitcoin was worth approximately USD 10, traded in small volumes and its price could be moved significantly even by a relatively small group of buyers. Today, digital gold is part of a broad financial system with high liquidity, where regulated spot ETFs, futures contracts and options play a key role.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a key source of capital flows, attracting more than USD 5.5 billion in net inflows since August. This continuous demand from institutional investors may influence market dynamics. For the long-term development of the price, it will be crucial whether these funds can continue to absorb the supply of available coins during the final quarter.

Two Forces

Standing against sustained growth, however, is the U.S. central bank. The Fed is keeping its benchmark interest rate within the 3.75–4.00% range and has not ruled out one more increase before the end of the year. Higher interest rates generate returns on safe government bonds, which naturally increases the cost of capital and reduces investors’ willingness to take risks in the cryptocurrency market.

Developments toward the end of the year may therefore be influenced by two main factors. On one side is the inflow of institutional money through ETFs, while on the other is the Fed’s restrictive monetary policy. For the further development of Bitcoin’s price, it may therefore be more useful to monitor actual trading volumes in ETFs than to expect an automatic repetition of the historical pattern from 2012.

Warning: The content of this article is intended solely for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute investment advice, a financial recommendation or a proposal to buy or sell any digital assets or securities.