Five Years of Bitcoin in the Mainstream
On 19 October 2021, the first exchange-traded fund linked to bitcoin started trading in the United States. Five years on, it is worth asking a plain question: what did that moment actually change? This is a look at the data behind five years of bitcoin in the mainstream, with no drama attached.
Data as of 2 October 2026. All prices in US dollars. Superscript numbers refer to the sources at the end.
2021: Bitcoin enters Wall Street
On 19 October 2021, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF, with the ticker BITO, began trading in the United States1. For many people, this was the moment bitcoin walked through Wall Street's front door.
There was a catch. BITO did not buy any bitcoin. Instead, it bought futures, contracts that bet on what bitcoin will cost in the future, on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Every month, the fund has to swap expiring contracts for new ones, which are usually a little more expensive. Over time, this eats into returns. Before the launch, analysts expected BITO to trail bitcoin by 10 to 13% a year; in reality, the gap has varied a lot from year to year2.
The bigger change came later. On 10 January 2024, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 11 so-called spot bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs)3. Unlike BITO, these funds buy real bitcoin and keep it with professional custodians.
Below, we look at what happened over the past five years in four areas: the price, the total market value, who owns bitcoin, and how wildly the price swings.
1. Bitcoin's price
Autumn 2021: When BITO launched, one bitcoin cost about $64,0001. On 10 November 2021, the price reached a then-record of about $69,0004.
2022: A year of crashes. A string of crypto companies collapsed (Terra, Celsius and finally the FTX exchange), and in November 2022 bitcoin fell to about $15,500, more than 75% below its peak5.
2024 to 2025: When spot ETFs were approved in January 2024, bitcoin cost about $46,0006. In March 2024, it set a new record above $73,0007, and on 6 October 2025, it reached its all-time high of about $126,0008.
2026: Another sharp fall. On 24 June 2026, bitcoin dropped to about $59,000, 53% below the peak9. By 2 October 2026, it had recovered to about $86,0008.
What did the 2021 ETF have to do with it?
Very little in the long run. The price peaked only a few weeks after BITO launched and then fell for a year. It was a classic case of "buy the rumour, sell the news".
The spot ETPs provided a new channel for investment in bitcoin. Because they buy real bitcoin, net inflows can contribute to demand for bitcoin, although they do not by themselves establish the extent of their impact on its price. By 1 October 2026, US spot bitcoin ETFs had taken in a net $57.6 billion since their launch11. Still, they did not prevent big falls, as 2026 shows, and other factors also played a part: interest rates, the mood on stock markets and the April 2024 "halving", a built-in cut in the number of new coins created10.
Table 1: Bitcoin's price at key moments
| Date | What happened | Price (approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 2021 | First US bitcoin ETF (BITO, futures-based) launches | $64,000 |
| 10 Nov 2021 | Record high of the 2021 cycle | $69,000 |
| Nov 2022 | Low point after the FTX collapse | $15,500 |
| 10 Jan 2024 | SEC approves spot bitcoin ETFs | $46,000 |
| 6 Oct 2025 | All-time high | $126,000 |
| 24 Jun 2026 | Lowest point of 2026 | $59,000 |
| 2 Oct 2026 | Today | $86,000 |
Sources: [1], [4], [5], [6], [8], [9]. Prices rounded.
2. Total market value
The total market value (often called market capitalisation) is simply the price of one bitcoin multiplied by the number of coins in existence. The 20 millionth bitcoin was created on 9 March 2026; there will never be more than 21 million10.
In October 2021, the total stood at about $1.2 trillion. By November 2022, after the crash, it had fallen to about $0.3 trillion. When spot ETFs were approved in January 2024 it was about $0.9 trillion, and at the all-time high in October 2025 it reached about $2.5 trillion. In October 2026 it stands at about $1.7 trillion.
What did the 2021 ETF have to do with it?
It helped bitcoin's image, not its value. BITO's launch fed headlines about bitcoin as a "trillion-dollar asset", but since the fund bought no coins, it could not support the price when the market fell.
Institutional holdings have grown. ETFs and similar funds worldwide now hold about 1.49 million bitcoins12, and companies also hold substantial amounts. The largest corporate holder, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), holds 847,666 bitcoins13.
Table 2: Bitcoin's total market value
| Date | Price | Coins in existence | Total market value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2021 | $64,000 | 18.9 million | $1.2 trillion |
| Nov 2022 | $15,500 | 19.2 million | $0.3 trillion |
| Jan 2024 | $46,000 | 19.6 million | $0.9 trillion |
| Oct 2025 (peak) | $126,000 | 19.9 million | $2.5 trillion |
| Oct 2026 | $86,000 | 20.1 million | $1.7 trillion |
Total market value = price × coins in existence, rounded. The author's calculation based on prices in Table 1; coin counts estimated from Bitcoin's fixed issuance schedule [10].
3. Who owns bitcoin
Nobody knows exactly who owns bitcoin, because wallets are not labelled with their owners' names. But trackers count the coins held by known organisations such as funds, companies and governments12.
Funds: At the end of 2021, the US had no spot bitcoin ETP. The biggest fund, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, held about 645,000 bitcoins14. Today, ETPs and other funds worldwide hold about 1.49 million, roughly 7% of all coins. The largest, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), holds about 801,000 on its own12.
Companies: At the end of 2021, listed companies held roughly 250,000 bitcoins, led by MicroStrategy (124,391) and Tesla (43,200)14. Today, listed and private companies hold about 1.65 million, around 8% of all coins12.
Governments: Governments hold about 520,000 bitcoins, mostly seized from criminals12. The largest holders are the United States (about 198,000), China (about 194,000) and the United Kingdom (about 61,000). Some trackers put the US figure at around 324,000, because they also count 127,271 bitcoins seized in 2025 in a fraud case that is still in court15. Many of these coins were seized years ago: by the end of 2021, governments already held roughly 320,000 bitcoins, with China holding about 194,000 from the PlusToken scam27, the US about 69,000 from the Silk Road case28 and the UK about 61,00029.
Everyone else: About 82% of all coins are held by individuals, crypto exchanges and miners, or in other wallets whose owners are unknown. This also includes about 270,000 coins locked in "wrapped bitcoin" services, which let people use their bitcoin in other crypto apps12. Two groups stand out. Crypto exchanges hold about 2.7 million coins on behalf of their customers, the lowest level since 201330. And an estimated 3 to 4 million coins are probably lost forever: in 2020, the analytics firm Chainalysis put the figure at about 3.7 million18. This most likely already includes the nearly one million coins believed to belong to Bitcoin's anonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, which have not moved in years19. The number of coins actually available to buy and sell is therefore much smaller than the total.
Big-name investors: Through bitcoin ETPs, bitcoin exposure has reached Harvard University's endowment, Abu Dhabi's state investor Mubadala, the State of Texas16 and Goldman Sachs17. Note that they own shares in these investment products, not coins directly. And not everyone stayed: Wisconsin's state pension fund sold its whole stake in 2025, and Michigan's pension fund sold its IBIT shares, keeping only a small holding in another bitcoin ETF16.
What did the 2021 ETF have to do with it?
No direct link. BITO held no bitcoin at all, so it did not move a single coin from private wallets to institutions.
The spot ETPs opened the door. They let pension funds, university endowments and financial advisers gain exposure to bitcoin in a familiar way, through an ordinary brokerage account.
Table 3: Who holds bitcoin, then and now
| Holder | End of 2021 | October 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| ETFs and other funds | 0.65 million (3%)¹ | 1.49 million (7%) |
| Companies (listed and private) | 0.25 million (1%)² | 1.65 million (8%) |
| Governments | 0.32 million (2%)⁴ | 0.52 million (3%) |
| Everyone else (individuals, exchanges, miners, lost coins) | about 94%³ | about 82%³ |
Bitcoins held; share of all coins in existence at the time in brackets. ¹ Grayscale Bitcoin Trust only. ² Listed companies only, approximate. ³ Includes coins locked in "wrapped bitcoin" services for crypto apps (DeFi), about 0.27 million in 2026. ⁴ Estimate based on known seizures in China, the US and the UK. Sources: [12], [14], [27] to [29].
4. How much the price swings
Volatility measures how much a price jumps up and down. It is usually expressed as an annual percentage: the higher the number, the bigger the typical swings. A second, simpler measure is the biggest fall from a peak, meaning how far the price dropped from its highest point before it recovered. The two are not the same: even a calmer year can include a deep fall.
2017 to 2020: At its wildest, bitcoin's volatility was above 100%20. Between December 2017 and December 2018, the price fell by 84%25.
2021 to 2023: Still very high. In 2021, it was about twice as high as in 202521, and between April and July 2021 the price more than halved as China cracked down on crypto mining26. In early 2023, volatility was around 66%20.
2025: The calmest year so far, with volatility of 42%, lower than that of Tesla (63%) or Nvidia (50%) shares21. In mid-2025, short-term volatility dropped to just 22 to 25%22.
2026: Calmer does not mean safe. Between October 2025 and June 2026, bitcoin lost more than half its value9.
Trading has also shifted towards Wall Street hours. Since spot ETFs were introduced, a growing share of bitcoin trading happens while US stock markets are open; in 2024, this share hit a record23.
What did the 2021 ETF have to do with it?
No calming effect. BITO did not make the price steadier. The 2022 crash was driven by the collapse of crypto companies, not by the ETF5.
What changed later: bitcoin's measured volatility declined following the introduction of the spot ETPs in 2024 and after options on them started trading in November 202424. Options let large investors manage exposure to price movements, although their effect on overall market volatility is not necessarily one-directional. Even so, it is hard to prove how much of the calmer market is due to ETFs alone.
Table 4: How much bitcoin's price swings
| Period | Typical yearly swing (volatility) | Biggest fall from a peak | In plain words |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 to 2020 | over 100% at peaks | 84% (Dec 2017 to Dec 2018) | Wild swings |
| 2021 | about 80% | more than 50% (Apr to Jul 2021) | Very high; China cracks down on crypto mining |
| 2022 to early 2023 | about 66% | 77% (Nov 2021 to Nov 2022) | High; crypto firms collapse, including FTX |
| 2025 | 42% | 32% | Calmer than Tesla or Nvidia shares |
| Mid-2025 | 22 to 25% (short-term) | Calmest in almost two years | |
| Oct 2025 to Jun 2026 | no comparable figure | 53% (from $126,000 to $59,000) | A calmer market can still fall deeply |
Volatility = typical size of price fluctuations over a year. Biggest fall = drop from the highest to the lowest price within the period. The 2021 volatility is derived from Schwab's statement that 2025 volatility was about half of 2021's; the 77% fall is calculated from the prices in Table 1. Sources: [4], [5], [9], [20] to [22], [25], [26].
The bottom line
Five years on, 19 October 2021 remains an important date: it was the day the first bitcoin-linked ETF started trading in the US. But the data show that it did not cause the long-term price rise, did not move coins into the hands of institutions, and did not calm the market.
Because BITO only held futures contracts, it was more of a trial run. A further development came with the spot ETPs in January 2024: more money flowing in, ownership spreading to pension funds and university endowments, and, on average, smaller price swings. These developments occurred over the same period, but the data presented do not establish that the ETPs caused the reduction in volatility. Bitcoin nevertheless remains a risky asset, as the more than 50% drop between October 2025 and June 2026 showed.
This text is for information only and is not investment advice.
Sources
[1] Cointelegraph (19 Oct 2021): BTC price passes $63K as US Bitcoin ETF launches. cointelegraph.com
[2] CoinDesk (30 May 2023): ProShares' Bitcoin Futures ETF Underperforms BTC This Year, K33 Research. coindesk.com
[3] U.S. SEC (10 Jan 2024): Statement on the Approval of Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products, Chair Gary Gensler. sec.gov
[4] Hürriyet Daily News / AFP (10 Nov 2021): Bitcoin strikes record high above $69,000. hurriyetdailynews.com
[5] Euronews (22 Nov 2022): Bitcoin plunges to a 2-year low as FTX collapse contaminates industry. euronews.com
[6] Bloomberg (10 Jan 2024): Bitcoin Briefly Tops $47,000 in Cool Response to US ETF Approval. bloomberg.com
[7] Bloomberg (13 Mar 2024): Bitcoin Tops $73,000 to Hit New Record on Insatiable ETF Demand. bloomberg.com
[8] Yahoo Finance (2 Oct 2026): Bitcoin and ethereum prices today, Friday, October 2, 2026. finance.yahoo.com
[9] IG (29 Jun 2026): Bitcoin down 53%: is now a good time to buy? ig.com
[10] The Block (Mar 2026): Bitcoin's mined supply hits 20 million milestone. theblock.co
[11] TFTC: Bitcoin ETF Flows, daily tracker (data as of 1 Oct 2026). tftc.io
[12] Bitbo: Bitcoin Treasuries (data as of 1 Oct 2026). bitbo.io
[13] The Block: Strategy Bitcoin Holdings (Oct 2026). theblock.co
[14] Cointelegraph (Jan 2022): Bitcoin holdings of public companies surged in 2021. cointelegraph.com
[15] Arkham Intelligence (16 Oct 2025): US Government BTC seizure, LuBian / Chen Zhi. info.arkm.com
[16] Arkham Intelligence (1 Dec 2025): Who owns BlackRock's IBIT: Harvard, Abu Dhabi, Texas. info.arkm.com
[17] Decrypt (Nov 2024): Goldman Sachs Discloses $710 Million Bitcoin ETF Holdings in SEC Filing. decrypt.co
[18] Decrypt (2020): Lost Bitcoin: 3.7 million Bitcoin are probably gone forever (Chainalysis data). decrypt.co
[19] River: Who owns the most bitcoin? river.com
[20] CFA Institute, Enterprising Investor (Jun 2024): Still Misperceived: A Fresh Look at Bitcoin Volatility. rpc.cfainstitute.org
[21] Charles Schwab (2026): Bitcoin Volatility Shrinks to Magnificent 7 Levels. schwab.com
[22] DL News / Bybit & Block Scholes (15 Jul 2025): BTC volatility hit historic lows as ETF inflows transformed market dynamics. dlnews.com
[23] Bloomberg (21 May 2024): Share of Bitcoin Volume During US Market Hours Surges to Record (Kaiko data). bloomberg.com
[24] Benzinga (19 Nov 2024): IBIT spot bitcoin ETF options blow past $1 billion in trading volume on day one. benzinga.com
[25] Money (Dec 2018): Bitcoin's price is down 84% from its record high a year ago. money.com
[26] CNBC (20 Jul 2021): Bitcoin drops back below $30,000, heads toward new low for the year. cnbc.com
[27] The Block (Nov 2020): Chinese police have seized $4.2 billion cryptos from PlusToken Ponzi crackdown. theblock.co
[28] SiliconANGLE (5 Nov 2020): Feds seize $1B in bitcoin linked to defunct dark web marketplace Silk Road. siliconangle.com
[29] Silicon UK (1 Feb 2024): UK police holding bitcoin worth £1.4 billion (seized in 2018). silicon.co.uk
[30] Benzinga (Apr 2026): Bitcoin is leaving exchanges, but where is it going? benzinga.com
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