Russia is preparing to introduce a regulated framework for cryptocurrency trading, and Sberbank estimates that trading on regulated exchanges could reach up to USD 46 billion during the first year. It is estimated that only around 20% of the country’s currently estimated cryptocurrency transaction volume could move to regulated exchanges, suggesting that the new system is more likely to formalise part of existing activity than to create an entirely new market.

USD 46 billion in first-year trading

According to Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov, estimated regulated cryptocurrency trading in Russia could reach approximately RUB 3.5 trillion to RUB 4 trillion, or around USD 41 billion to USD 46 billion, during the first year of the new framework. The estimate was prepared by SberCIB Investment Research and assumes that roughly 20% of the country’s existing cryptocurrency activity will gradually move to regulated exchanges.

The forecast is based on Russian Finance Ministry estimates indicating that cryptocurrency transactions in the country currently reach approximately RUB 50 billion per day, equivalent to around RUB 18 trillion annually. This means that the projected USD 46 billion in regulated trading would account for only about one-fifth of the estimated current market, rather than representing the total volume of cryptocurrency activity in Russia. Sberbank expects the regulated share to increase further as the market develops, potentially reaching RUB 4.75 trillion to RUB 5.25 trillion by 2028 and approximately RUB 7.5 trillion, or around USD 87 billion, by 2029.

A regulated market from September

The new cryptocurrency framework takes effect on September 1 and introduces regulated infrastructure for trading and holding digital assets. Both qualified and non-qualified investors will be able to access cryptocurrencies through regulated intermediaries such as brokers, exchanges and asset managers, as well as through regulated crypto exchanges. Digital repositories will also form part of the system, recording ownership rights to crypto assets in a structure similar to traditional securities depositories.

Retail investors without qualified status will face additional restrictions. They will be required to complete an investor test and will generally be limited to purchasing the most liquid cryptocurrencies, with annual purchases capped at RUB 300,000 through each intermediary under the applicable rules. Bitcoin, Ethereum and USDT have already been included among the assets available for public exchange trading. Qualified investors will also need to pass testing but will be able to purchase a broader range of cryptocurrencies and will not be subject to the RUB 300,000 annual purchase limit applicable to non-qualified investors.

Financial institutions prepare for the new framework

The regulatory changes are also prompting traditional financial institutions to prepare infrastructure for cryptocurrency trading, custody, and related services. Sberbank plans to integrate a cryptocurrency wallet into its existing applications and establish a digital asset depository after the new framework enters into force. The bank has previously introduced products linked to Bitcoin and Ethereum for qualified investors, providing an example of how regulated financial institutions may begin connecting digital assets with existing investment infrastructure.

The bank has also discussed the possibility of loans secured by Bitcoin, Ethereum and USDT, subject to regulatory approval and applicable investor requirements. If such products are introduced, they would represent another connection between cryptocurrency markets and traditional financial services. Their development would also illustrate how the regulatory framework could influence not only exchange trading, but also custody, lending and other financial activities involving digital assets.

Most crypto activity may remain outside exchanges

Despite the size of the forecast, Sberbank expects regulated exchanges to represent only a minority of Russia’s total cryptocurrency activity during the initial stage. Professional market participants have until July 2027 to obtain the required licenses, while much of the existing market may continue operating through alternative trading channels. The projected USD 46 billion should therefore be viewed as an estimate for the regulated segment, representing approximately 20% of the currently estimated Russian crypto market, rather than as a measure of the country’s total cryptocurrency activity.

Warning: The content of this article is intended exclusively for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to purchase a specific asset. Investments in crypto-assets involve a high level of risk. The value of crypto-assets may fall as well as rise, and you may lose the entire amount invested. Crypto-assets are not protected by deposit guarantee schemes. Past returns are not a guarantee of future results.