The U.S. Senate is facing a decisive procedural vote on the CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633), which is intended to deliver the most comprehensive reform of digital asset regulation in the United States to date. The bill successfully passed the House of Representatives in July 2025 and also secured support in a Senate committee in May 2026. However, the path toward its final approval remains complicated. Securing the required 60 votes in a divided Senate is being hindered by ethical disputes surrounding crypto-related income linked to the presidential office, concerns within the banking sector over stablecoins, and an exceptionally tight legislative calendar.

Senate Vote Mathematics and the Chances of Passage

A key moment for the entire crypto sector will come on September 15, 2026, at 2:15 p.m. ET, when a procedural vote to end debate, known as a cloture vote, is scheduled. This is not the final approval of the bill, but rather a procedural step required to move the proposal toward further consideration in the Senate. Overcoming this hurdle requires a qualified majority of 60 votes. Republicans hold 53 seats in the Senate, meaning that even with complete party unity they would still need to secure at least 7 Democratic votes.

The reality within the parties is even more challenging. Among Republican senators, Rand Paul and Josh Hawley have signaled firm opposition, while Thom Tillis has conditioned his support on significantly stricter ethics rules. At the same time, John Cornyn and John Curtis have expressed concerns about a potential outflow of bank deposits and a reduction in the reach of law-enforcement authorities. If, for example, three to four Republican senators withdrew their support, the leadership would need to persuade 10 to 11 Democrats. Given the current situation, passage of the bill therefore appears rather unlikely at present.

Ethics Rules, DeFi Developers and the Banking Fight Over Yields

The most significant political flashpoint is the issue of ethics and potential conflicts of interest involving government officials. Although the proposed text prohibits senior government officials and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring digital assets in exchange for consideration, Democrats point to major loopholes. Particular attention is being drawn to data from Donald Trump’s 2025 financial disclosure, which reports income related to crypto activities exceeding USD 1.4 billion, including approximately USD 636 million linked to the $TRUMP project and more than USD 500 million from token transactions associated with World Liberty Financial. Critics also object to the fact that enforcement of the rules would fall to Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche and that the ethics provision is set to expire on January 20, 2029. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is therefore demanding that the legislation include a prohibition on the president and other elected officials issuing or sponsoring digital assets.

The second disputed point is Section 604, which under specified conditions provides protection for developers of non-custodial software from certain obligations under the Bank Secrecy Act and from liability related to misuse of their open-source code. Sheriffs’ and police associations strongly oppose this protection, fearing that it could create room for money laundering. The third major conflict concerns stablecoin yields. A coalition of 78 banking groups, led by the American Bankers Association, is conducting intensive lobbying against the practice of platforms offering yields, such as Coinbase USDC yield at 4.5% compared with regional bank accounts paying 1.2%. Coinbase generated approximately USD 1.35 billion from USDC rewards programs in 2025 alone, while the banking sector fears a massive outflow of deposits if legislation allows such rewards to be offered more broadly within digital assets.

Transfer of Powers to the CFTC and Institutional Rules of the Game

If adopted, the CLARITY Act would mark a historic shift in the division of authority between U.S. regulators. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) would gain significant regulatory and supervisory authority over digital commodity spot markets, representing the largest expansion of its powers in history. Spot trading platforms, custodians and market makers would all fall under its supervision. Based on a joint SEC and CFTC interpretive document from March 2026, 16 crypto assets were already explicitly listed as examples of digital commodities. Adoption of the law would give this classification a permanent statutory basis, supplemented by a Mature Blockchain Test with strict criteria relating to the concentration of voting rights and token ownership by certain persons.

A clearly defined regulatory framework is particularly important for institutional capital. According to surveys, as many as 65% of institutional allocators identify regulatory uncertainty as the main obstacle to increasing their exposure to crypto assets. However, the CFTC’s own capacity remains a major challenge. While the SEC has 4,200 employees and a budget of USD 2.149 billion, the CFTC employs only 556 people with a budget of USD 365 million following a 21.5% decline in staffing during fiscal year 2025. The bill provided for an additional USD 150 million in funding for the CFTC, but the question remains how quickly those resources could actually be transferred and converted into practical supervisory capacity.

Legislative Calendar and the SEC’s Backup Plan

Even if the procedural vote in the Senate on September 15 succeeds, the bill faces serious timing obstacles in the House of Representatives. Legislative weeks beginning September 21 and September 28 were removed from the House schedule, eliminating 8 planned legislative days, and lawmakers are expected to leave Washington as early as September 17. Since any Senate-amended version of the bill must be approved again by the House, the final process could involuntarily be pushed into the period after the November elections, during the lame-duck session. Budget reconciliation legislation is also competing for priority on the Senate floor.

In the event that the bill fails, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is already preparing its own administrative framework. On August 18, 2026, the Commission proposed rules titled Regulation Crypto Assets, which include two exemptions from registration requirements for certain offerings of investment contracts and a conditional safe harbor for certain crypto assets: a Startup exemption of up to USD 5 million over four years, a Fundraising exemption of up to USD 75 million over 12 months, and a conditional Investment Contract safe harbor. The crypto asset sector has meanwhile invested more than USD 189 million in political spending during the 2026 election cycle, including USD 82 million from Fairshake, USD 35.2 million from Coinbase and USD 49 million from Ripple Labs. Investment bank Bernstein estimates that if the bill is definitively rejected, Bitcoin could decline by 10% to 25%, potentially testing the USD 55,000–60,000 range, while altcoins could fall by 15% to 30%. Analysts at TD Cowen expect the legislation to be delayed until 2027, with implementation no earlier than 2029.

Decisive Milestone

The upcoming September 15 vote represents a key test for the overall direction of digital finance in the United States. The outcome will show whether Washington is capable of reaching a bipartisan compromise between supporting technological innovation, protecting consumers and eliminating systemic risk to the traditional banking sector, or whether the U.S. market will continue to rely on gradual enforcement by regulators.

Disclaimer: This text is intended solely for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial recommendation or a proposal to buy or sell any digital assets or securities.